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Woodside Energy (WDS · ASX / NYSE)

Large independent — HQ Australia. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Large independentRegion Asia-PacificCEO Meg O'Neill (2021)Jurisdiction risk Low (23)

Overview

LNG-heavy portfolio: North West Shelf, Pluto, Scarborough (start ~2026), Sangomar Senegal (2024), US Gulf of Mexico (Shenzi/Mad Dog via the 2022 BHP Petroleum merger), Louisiana LNG (Driftwood) FID 2025, Trinidad, Beaumont ammonia.

Strong investment-grade balance sheet with modest gearing; high dividend payout (~80% of underlying NPAT) alongside peak funding for Scarborough and Louisiana LNG. Flags: elevated multi-year capex, Australian domestic-gas/ESG regulation, single-country LNG concentration, LNG-price/oil-linkage sensitivity.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$38.9bn
Enterprise value
$46.9bn
EV / EBITDA
5.1x
P / E
14.7x
FCF yield
6.4%
Dividend yield
5.3%
ROACE
9%
Debt / equity
25%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.9x
EV / reserves
$24.95/boe
EV / flowing
$86k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$2.5bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 5.1x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 6.4% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $24.95/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Woodside Energy scores 55/100, strongest on safety (70/100). Sub-scores: value 49, quality 47, growth 66, risk 30 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Woodside Energy holds approximately 1.88 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 545 thousand boe/d (29% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 9.5 years. Break-even: ~$40 (Brent FCF breakeven) — Approximate free-cash-flow breakeven covering sustaining capital and base dividend; growth capex (Scarborough, Louisiana LNG) funded above this level.

Net asset value (public-source floor)

Using Woodside Energy's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($24.0bn) less net debt ($8.0bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $16.0bn — the current market capitalisation sits +143% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: —. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines. Proved-only; excludes Louisiana LNG (Driftwood) and downstream/ammonia value.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

23 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Australia70%10Stable; rising carbon/PRRT tax scrutiny and approvals delays.
Senegal13%82Hidden-debt revision, fiscal renegotiation, new producer.
United States12%23Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings.
Trinidad & Tobago5%44Mature gas, declining reserves, cross-border Venezuela deals.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
North West ShelfAustraliaLNGlegacy foundation LNG hub
Pluto LNGAustraliaLNGbackfilled by Scarborough
ScarboroughAustraliaGas/LNGbackfills Pluto Train 2, ~2026
SangomarSenegalOffshore oilfirst oil 2024
US Gulf of MexicoUnited StatesDeepwater oilShenzi/Mad Dog (ex-BHP)
Louisiana LNG (Driftwood)United StatesLNGFID 2025
TrinidadTrinidad & TobagoGasgas supply
WheatstoneAustraliaLNGminority

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)247440513530545
Proved reserves (bnboe)2.202.302.402.351.88
Revenue ($bn)7.016.814.013.213.0
EBITDA ($bn)3.910.08.57.69.3
Net income ($bn)2.06.51.73.62.6
Free cash flow ($bn)0.96.51.40.92.5

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Peer companies — Large independent

COP · ConocoPhillipsEOG · EOG ResourcesOXY · Occidental PetroleumDVN · Devon Energy1605.T · InpexAKRBP · Aker BPPTTEP · PTT E&POVV · OvintivSTO · SantosWCP · Whitecap ResourcesAPA · APA CorporationVAR · Var EnergiPRIO3 · PRIO S.A.SM · SM Energy Company

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare WDS against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com