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Santos (STO · ASX)

Large independent — HQ Australia. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Large independentRegion Asia-PacificCEO Kevin Gallagher (2016)Jurisdiction risk Low (28)

Overview

LNG/gas heavy: GLNG (Queensland), PNG LNG stake, Cooper Basin, Barossa (backfills Darwin LNG, started ~2025), Alaska Pikka (~2026), Dorado.

Strong balance sheet with net debt ~$3.5bn easing as Barossa/Pikka ramp; disciplined dividend backed by a low FCF breakeven. The ADNOC/XRG ~$18.7bn takeover collapsed in 2026, leaving a valuation and strategic overhang. Flags: Australasian concentration, domestic gas policy, Barossa/CCS approvals.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$15.3bn
Enterprise value
$21.1bn
EV / EBITDA
7.3x
P / E
18.7x
FCF yield
5.0%
Dividend yield
4.8%
ROACE
8%
Debt / equity
48%
Net debt / EBITDA
2.0x
EV / reserves
$23.11/boe
EV / flowing
$88k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.8bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 7.3x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 5.0% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $23.11/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Santos scores 39/100, strongest on safety (45/100). Sub-scores: value 39, quality 38, growth 24, risk 55 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Santos holds approximately 0.91 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 240 thousand boe/d (17% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 10.4 years. Break-even: ~$35 (FCF breakeven (Brent)) — ~US$35/bbl free-cash-flow breakeven (2025); low-cost LNG-weighted portfolio.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Santos, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

28 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Australia70%10Stable; rising carbon/PRRT tax scrutiny and approvals delays.
Papua New Guinea22%79Landowner disputes, LNG delays, weak institutions.
Timor-Leste5%67Greater Sunrise dispute, revenue-sharing, capacity limits.
United States (Alaska)3%23Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
BarossaAustraliaGas/LNGbackfills Darwin LNG, ~2025
PNG LNGPapua New GuineaLNGminority
GLNGAustraliaLNGoperator
Cooper BasinAustraliaOil/gaslegacy
PikkaUnited States (Alaska)Oil~2026 first oil
DoradoAustraliaOildevelopment
Bayu-Undan / Darwin LNGTimor-Leste/AustraliaLNGbackfill
Moomba CCSAustraliaCCScarbon capture

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)255282251246240
Proved reserves (bnboe)1.151.191.141.100.91
Revenue ($bn)4.77.85.85.84.9
EBITDA ($bn)2.75.23.93.72.9
Net income ($bn)0.72.11.40.90.8
Free cash flow ($bn)1.02.51.51.00.8

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Peer companies — Large independent

COP · ConocoPhillipsEOG · EOG ResourcesOXY · Occidental PetroleumDVN · Devon EnergyWDS · Woodside Energy1605.T · InpexAKRBP · Aker BPPTTEP · PTT E&POVV · OvintivWCP · Whitecap ResourcesAPA · APA CorporationVAR · Var EnergiPRIO3 · PRIO S.A.SM · SM Energy Company

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare STO against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com