ConocoPhillips sits between the majors and the pure-play shale names. About 63% of output comes from the Lower 48 (Delaware and Midland Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken — including assets from the ~$22.5bn Marathon Oil acquisition closed late-2024), complemented by Alaska (Willow, first oil ~2029), Canadian oil sands, and long-dated LNG in Qatar and Australia. Reserve life of ~8.8 years is the shortest here, reflecting its shale weighting.
Valuation is mid-pack (~7.3x EV/EBITDA, ~$21/boe, ~5% FCF yield) with a conservative ~0.7x net debt/EBITDA and a through-cycle framework to return at least 30% of operating cash flow — about 45% was returned in 2025 via a rising dividend and $5bn of buybacks. It reads as a lower-risk, OECD-weighted operator at a clear discount to the majors.
Its EV/EBITDA of 6.8x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 4.9% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $21.41/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.
On a balanced screen across the universe, ConocoPhillips scores 47/100, strongest on safety (69/100). Sub-scores: value 33, quality 41, growth 54, risk 31 (higher = riskier).
ConocoPhillips holds approximately 7.64 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 2,375 thousand boe/d (66% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 8.8 years. Break-even: ~$35/bbl (Free-cash-flow break-even (WTI)) — Cost of supply below ~$40/bbl WTI (portfolio average ~$32). FCF break-even ~$35/bbl; ~$35–40/bbl including the ordinary dividend. Mid-cycle planning at $60/bbl WTI (Apr-2023 analyst day).
Using ConocoPhillips's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($56.0bn) less net debt ($16.5bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $39.5bn — the current market capitalisation sits +271% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: —. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines. Excludes LNG equity investments (APLNG, Qatar/Port Arthur) and undeveloped resource beyond proved.
| Country / region | Prod. share | Country risk | Key jurisdiction risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 63% | 23 | Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings. |
| Norway | 9% | 3 | Stable, predictable; high but transparent 78% tax. |
| Qatar / Asia LNG | 8% | 26 | Stable; NOC-dominated LNG, limited foreign equity share. |
| Canada | 7% | 8 | Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy. |
| Other | 7% | 50 | diversified/unspecified exposure — universe-average proxy |
| Australia | 6% | 10 | Stable; rising carbon/PRRT tax scrutiny and approvals delays. |
Enerquill Advisory provides asset valuation, petroleum fiscal modelling and risk analysis for oil, gas and LNG transactions — including bespoke, deal-specific NAV and acquirer–target screens that go well beyond this public data.
Work with us →About Enerquill| Asset | Location | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Permian (Delaware & Midland) | United States | Shale oil | Largest Lower 48 position; expanded materially via Marathon (2024) |
| Eagle Ford | United States | Shale oil / liquids | Legacy asset; Marathon added contiguous acreage |
| Bakken | United States | Shale oil | Established oil position; scaled up by Marathon |
| Alaska — Prudhoe/Kuparuk + Willow | United States | Conventional / Arctic | Willow operated (~180 kbd peak), first oil ~2029 |
| Surmont | Canada | Oil sands (SAGD) | 100% owned since 2023; long-life bitumen |
| Greater Ekofisk | Norway | Offshore oil & gas | Long-life operated North Sea hub |
| Qatar LNG (NFE/NFS) | Qatar | LNG | Equity partner in North Field expansions |
| Australia Pacific LNG | Australia | CBM-to-LNG | ~47.5% stake; steady cash generator |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mboe/d) | 1567 | 1738 | 1826 | 1987 | 2375 |
| Proved reserves (bnboe) | 6.10 | 6.60 | 6.80 | 7.80 | 7.64 |
| Revenue ($bn) | 48.3 | 82.2 | 58.6 | 57.0 | 58.9 |
| EBITDA ($bn) | 21.3 | 36.9 | 26.0 | 24.7 | 24.0 |
| Net income ($bn) | 8.1 | 18.7 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 11.7 | 18.2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 7.2 |
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✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources: