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Rosneft (ROSN · Moscow)

Integrated — HQ Russia. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category IntegratedRegion EuropeCEO Igor Sechin (2012)Jurisdiction risk High (89)⚠ Sanctioned

Overview

Rosneft is Russia's largest oil company and one of the world's biggest listed producers by output and reserves - a state-controlled, vertically integrated giant spanning a vast upstream base across West and East Siberia, the Volga-Urals, Sakhalin and the flagship Vostok Oil Arctic greenfield on the Taymyr Peninsula, plus a large refining and retail network inside Russia. Control rests with the Russian state through Rosneftegaz (~40%), alongside Qatar's QIA (~18.9%) and BP's residual, impaired and effectively frozen stake; the shares trade only on the Moscow Exchange in rubles and the company is not a US SEC filer. CEO Igor Sechin, in post since 2012, is a close Kremlin ally, and strategy is closely aligned with Russian state interests. Following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Rosneft and its executives are subject to US and EU sanctions that make the equity uninvestable for Western strategic or financial acquirers; the company has also curtailed IFRS and English-language disclosure, so all figures here are estimates with LOW reliability.

Sanctioned/state-controlled; figures estimated. Total hydrocarbon production is estimated around 4.8 mmboe/d (roughly 3.7-3.9 mmbbl/d liquids plus gas), held down by OPEC+ curtailments, on an enormous 1P reserve base near 40 bnboe. Estimated FY revenue is on the order of ~$100bn with EBITDA near ~$30bn and net income roughly ~$11-14bn (converted from rubles at ~0.011 USD/RUB and highly sensitive to the exchange rate and to Urals/ESPO discounts versus Brent). The upstream is very low-cost - a Brent breakeven around ~$25 - but realizations are depressed by sanctions-driven discounts and cargoes are routed mainly to China and India. Net debt is estimated around ~$40bn (net debt/EBITDA ~1x). The central growth story is Vostok Oil, a multi-hundred-billion-dollar Arctic megaproject targeting up to ~2 mmbbl/d over the 2030s, though its financing, technology access and export logistics all face sanctions and partner-flight headwinds. For Western M&A purposes the company is off-limits; the analytical value here is as a benchmark of Russian upstream scale and cost, not an actionable target.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$60.0bn
Enterprise value
$100bn
EV / EBITDA
3.3x
P / E
5.5x
FCF yield
16.7%
Dividend yield
10.0%
ROACE
13%
Debt / equity
50%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.3x
EV / reserves
$2.50/boe
EV / flowing
$21k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$10.0bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 3.3x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 16.7% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $2.50/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Rosneft scores 56/100, strongest on valuation (91/100). Sub-scores: value 91, quality 68, growth 23, risk 93 (higher = riskier). Note: sanctioned / uninvestable for Western acquirers — shown for completeness only.

Reserves & production

Rosneft holds approximately 40 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 4,800 thousand boe/d (85% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 22.8 years. Break-even: ~$25 (Brent breakeven) — low-cost but sanctioned/discounted

Net asset value (public-source)

For Rosneft, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

89 /100
High jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Russia92%92Sanctions, expropriation, export bans, war; effectively uninvestable.
Other8%50diversified/unspecified exposure — universe-average proxy
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Vostok OilRussiaOilFlagship Arctic greenfield on Taymyr Peninsula (Vankor cluster + Payakha + West Irkinsk); target ramp toward ~2 mmbbl/d in the 2030s via Northern Sea Route; sanctions/financing risk
PriobskoyeRussiaOilGiant mature West Siberian oil field; one of the largest producing assets in the portfolio
YuganskneftegazRussiaOilCore West Siberian production unit (ex-Yukos); backbone of legacy upstream output
Vankor clusterRussiaOilEast Siberian field feeding Vostok Oil infrastructure; ESPO-linked exports to Asia
SamotlorRussiaOilLegacy super-giant West Siberian field; mature, high-water-cut, tax-incentivized redevelopment
Rospan / Kharampur (gas)RussiaGasMajor gas condensate developments; core of the gas growth strategy
Ryazan / Tuapse / Novokuibyshevsk refineriesRussiaRefiningLarge domestic refining base supplying fuels and petrochemicals; targeted by drone strikes/sanctions
Sakhalin-1RussiaOilFar East offshore oil/gas project; operatorship transferred to a Russian entity after Western partner exits

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)50004900500049004800
Proved reserves (bnboe)42.0042.0042.0041.0040.00
Revenue ($bn)117.0130.0107.0105.0100.0
EBITDA ($bn)30.035.035.032.030.0
Net income ($bn)12.011.014.012.011.0
Free cash flow ($bn)12.015.014.011.010.0

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Peer companies — Integrated

SU · Suncor EnergyE · EniCVE · Cenovus EnergyIMO · Imperial OilLKOH · LukoilSIBN · Gazprom NeftGAZP · GazpromREP · RepsolOMV · OMVTATN · TatneftSNGS · SurgutneftegasGALP · Galp EnergiaORG · Origin EnergyMOL · MOL Group

Sources

Primary: Rosneft FY2025 annual report / results release and investor disclosures; market data via public providers (~mid-2026). Figures are best-estimates pending source verification.

↗ Compare ROSN against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com