Major oil sands mining (Base Plant, Fort Hills now ~100%-owned, Syncrude now majority-owned/operated) plus thermal in-situ (Firebag, MacKay River), fully integrated with four refineries (~460 kbbl/d) and the Petro-Canada retail network (~1,800 stations); plus East Coast Canada offshore. Long-life reserves underpin ~800-850 mboe/d, strongly liquids-weighted.
Solid balance sheet supporting a ~4% dividend plus sizable buybacks; a marked operational turnaround and cost-reduction program under CEO Rich Kruger (since 2023) has lifted reliability, throughput and downstream capture. Cheap on EV/EBITDA vs majors. Flags: Canada concentration, oil sands carbon policy, heavy-oil differentials, downstream cyclicality, large ARO.
Its EV/EBITDA of 7.7x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 6.5% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $18.15/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.
On a balanced screen across the universe, Suncor Energy scores 55/100, strongest on safety (77/100). Sub-scores: value 35, quality 67, growth 29, risk 23 (higher = riskier).
Suncor Energy holds approximately 4.74 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 860 thousand boe/d (100% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 15.1 years. Break-even: ~$40-45/bbl (WTI breakeven (funds capital + dividend)) — The integrated model captures downstream margins; oil sands are long-life low-decline, giving a competitive corporate breakeven.
Using Suncor Energy's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($28.6bn) less net debt ($8.3bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $20.3bn — the current market capitalisation sits +283% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: —. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines. Proved-only upstream; excludes the large Downstream refining & Petro-Canada retail value; big ARO.
| Country / region | Prod. share | Country risk | Key jurisdiction risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 100% | 8 | Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy. |
Enerquill Advisory provides asset valuation, petroleum fiscal modelling and risk analysis for oil, gas and LNG transactions — including bespoke, deal-specific NAV and acquirer–target screens that go well beyond this public data.
Work with us →About Enerquill| Asset | Location | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Sands Base Plant | Canada | Oil sands mining/upgrading | Core mining & upgrading, synthetic crude |
| Syncrude | Canada | Oil sands mining | Increased ownership to ~59%; operatorship consolidated |
| Fort Hills | Canada | Oil sands mining | Now ~100% owned after buying partners' stakes |
| Firebag / MacKay River | Canada | Oil sands (in-situ SAGD) | Thermal in-situ production |
| Refining (4 refineries) | Canada + US (Colorado) | Downstream | ~460 kbbl/d refining capacity |
| Petro-Canada retail | Canada | Marketing | ~1,800 retail stations, strong brand |
| East Coast offshore | Canada (Atlantic) | Offshore oil | Hibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose |
| Base Plant cogeneration | Canada | Power | Cogen replacing coke boilers, emissions cut |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mboe/d) | 732 | 743 | 746 | 828 | 860 |
| Proved reserves (bnboe) | 6.90 | 6.80 | 6.60 | 6.50 | 4.74 |
| Revenue ($bn) | 39.0 | 59.0 | 51.0 | 50.0 | 35.7 |
| EBITDA ($bn) | 10.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 11.2 |
| Net income ($bn) | 4.1 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 5.0 | 10.0 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 5.1 |
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✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources: