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Suncor Energy (SU · TSX / NYSE)

Integrated — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category IntegratedRegion N. AmericaCEO Rich Kruger (2023)Jurisdiction risk Low (8)

Overview

Major oil sands mining (Base Plant, Fort Hills now ~100%-owned, Syncrude now majority-owned/operated) plus thermal in-situ (Firebag, MacKay River), fully integrated with four refineries (~460 kbbl/d) and the Petro-Canada retail network (~1,800 stations); plus East Coast Canada offshore. Long-life reserves underpin ~800-850 mboe/d, strongly liquids-weighted.

Solid balance sheet supporting a ~4% dividend plus sizable buybacks; a marked operational turnaround and cost-reduction program under CEO Rich Kruger (since 2023) has lifted reliability, throughput and downstream capture. Cheap on EV/EBITDA vs majors. Flags: Canada concentration, oil sands carbon policy, heavy-oil differentials, downstream cyclicality, large ARO.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$77.8bn
Enterprise value
$86.0bn
EV / EBITDA
7.7x
P / E
18.0x
FCF yield
6.5%
Dividend yield
2.6%
ROACE
14%
Debt / equity
32%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
EV / reserves
$18.15/boe
EV / flowing
$100k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$5.1bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 7.7x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 6.5% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $18.15/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Suncor Energy scores 55/100, strongest on safety (77/100). Sub-scores: value 35, quality 67, growth 29, risk 23 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Suncor Energy holds approximately 4.74 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 860 thousand boe/d (100% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 15.1 years. Break-even: ~$40-45/bbl (WTI breakeven (funds capital + dividend)) — The integrated model captures downstream margins; oil sands are long-life low-decline, giving a competitive corporate breakeven.

Net asset value (public-source floor)

Using Suncor Energy's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($28.6bn) less net debt ($8.3bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $20.3bn — the current market capitalisation sits +283% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: —. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines. Proved-only upstream; excludes the large Downstream refining & Petro-Canada retail value; big ARO.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

8 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Canada100%8Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Oil Sands Base PlantCanadaOil sands mining/upgradingCore mining & upgrading, synthetic crude
SyncrudeCanadaOil sands miningIncreased ownership to ~59%; operatorship consolidated
Fort HillsCanadaOil sands miningNow ~100% owned after buying partners' stakes
Firebag / MacKay RiverCanadaOil sands (in-situ SAGD)Thermal in-situ production
Refining (4 refineries)Canada + US (Colorado)Downstream~460 kbbl/d refining capacity
Petro-Canada retailCanadaMarketing~1,800 retail stations, strong brand
East Coast offshoreCanada (Atlantic)Offshore oilHibernia, Terra Nova, White Rose
Base Plant cogenerationCanadaPowerCogen replacing coke boilers, emissions cut

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)732743746828860
Proved reserves (bnboe)6.906.806.606.504.74
Revenue ($bn)39.059.051.050.035.7
EBITDA ($bn)10.020.015.015.011.2
Net income ($bn)4.19.15.75.74.3
Free cash flow ($bn)5.010.06.06.55.1

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Peer companies — Integrated

E · EniROSN · RosneftCVE · Cenovus EnergyIMO · Imperial OilLKOH · LukoilSIBN · Gazprom NeftGAZP · GazpromREP · RepsolOMV · OMVTATN · TatneftSNGS · SurgutneftegasGALP · Galp EnergiaORG · Origin EnergyMOL · MOL Group

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare SU against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com