Origin Energy is Australia's largest integrated energy company, combining a leading domestic electricity and gas retail base (~4.5m+ customer accounts), a large generation fleet (including the Eraring coal station plus gas peakers, batteries and contracted renewables) and a 27.5% interest in Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), a two-train coal-seam-gas-to-LNG export project in Queensland. In FY2025 (year to June 2025) the group generated revenue of roughly US$11.4bn (A$17.3bn) and statutory net profit of about US$1.0bn (A$1.48bn), with group underlying EBITDA near US$2.4bn. ROACE was ~7% and the fully franked dividend yields ~5.6%. Most of Origin's value is in the defensive Energy Markets segment and its APLNG cash-flow stream rather than in owned upstream reserves.
The equity is best viewed as a domestic energy-transition utility with an oil-linked LNG cash annuity attached: Energy Markets earnings swing with wholesale power prices, tariffs and the coal-fleet transition, while the APLNG stake delivers strong, oil-price-linked distributions used to fund buybacks, dividends and the renewables/storage build-out. Origin also holds a ~20% strategic stake in UK-based Octopus Energy and its Kraken retail-technology platform, an option on global retail/software value that carries execution and valuation risk. As a non-US filer Origin does not report an SEC standardized measure of oil and gas; net 1P reserves (its 27.5% APLNG share, ~1.0 bnboe, almost entirely gas) and net production (~115 mboe/d) understate group value, which is dominated by Energy Markets and the equity-accounted APLNG business. Key sensitivities are Australian regulatory intervention, wholesale electricity prices, JKM/Brent-linked LNG pricing and the timing/cost of coal retirement and renewables investment.
Its EV/EBITDA of 6.8x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 6.4% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $38.50/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.
On a balanced screen across the universe, Origin Energy scores 41/100, strongest on safety (61/100). Sub-scores: value 46, quality 24, growth 28, risk 39 (higher = riskier).
Origin Energy holds approximately 0.4 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 86 thousand boe/d (1% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 12.8 years. Break-even: n/a (integrated energy (LNG + power/retail)) — value mostly Energy Markets (retail/generation) + APLNG LNG; upstream a minority
For Origin Energy, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.
| Country / region | Prod. share | Country risk | Key jurisdiction risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 90% | 10 | Stable; rising carbon/PRRT tax scrutiny and approvals delays. |
| United Kingdom/Global (Octopus) | 10% | 19 | Stable but EPL windfall tax raised North Sea fiscal burden. |
Enerquill Advisory provides asset valuation, petroleum fiscal modelling and risk analysis for oil, gas and LNG transactions — including bespoke, deal-specific NAV and acquirer–target screens that go well beyond this public data.
Work with us →About Enerquill| Asset | Location | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia Pacific LNG (27.5%) | Australia | CSG-to-LNG | two-train LNG export project at Curtis Island, Queensland; oil-linked distributions, equity-accounted; core upstream/LNG value |
| Energy Markets - retail | Australia | Electricity/gas retail | largest Australian energy retailer (~4.5m+ accounts); defensive earnings, main value driver |
| Generation fleet | Australia | Power generation | Eraring coal (retirement pathway), gas peakers, batteries (Eraring/Mortlake BESS) and contracted renewables |
| Octopus Energy stake (~20%) | United Kingdom / Global | Retail + Kraken tech | strategic stake in UK-based retailer and Kraken SaaS platform; global retail/software optionality |
| Eraring battery / storage | Australia | Storage | large-scale BESS build supporting the transition off the Eraring coal station |
| Yamna / hydrogen & future fuels | Australia / International | Hydrogen | early-stage green-hydrogen/ammonia and future-fuels options (partnerships incl. Yamna); optionality, minimal current earnings |
| APLNG upstream gas fields | Australia | Coal-seam gas | Surat/Bowen Basin CSG feeding APLNG and domestic gas; underpins net reserves/production |
| Contracted renewables portfolio | Australia | Wind/solar PPAs | growing PPA-backed renewables to firm retail load as coal exits |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mboe/d) | 105 | 108 | 110 | 112 | 86 |
| Proved reserves (bnboe) | 1.10 | 1.05 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 0.40 |
| Revenue ($bn) | 8.0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| EBITDA ($bn) | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Net income ($bn) | -1.5 | -0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
Enter your email and we'll open a print-ready one-page tearsheet for Origin Energy — and add you to the monthly oil & gas valuation screen.
✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources: