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MOL Group (MOL · Budapest)

Integrated — HQ Hungary. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category IntegratedRegion EuropeCEO Gyorgy Bacsa (Group CEO)Jurisdiction risk Med (35)

Overview

Central European integrated: refining (Hungary Duna, Slovakia Slovnaft, Croatia INA), ~2,400 retail stations and petrochemicals; upstream in Central Europe, UK North Sea, Azerbaijan ACG, Kazakhstan and Egypt.

Solid balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA ~0.9x) and a steady ~7% dividend yield; the key risk is Druzhba/Russian-crude exposure feeding the Duna and Slovnaft refineries, plus weak petrochemical margins. Flags: refining-dominated, upstream declining and a minority of EBITDA.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$9.4bn
Enterprise value
$10.8bn
EV / EBITDA
2.8x
P / E
10.0x
FCF yield
8.9%
Dividend yield
6.8%
ROACE
8%
Debt / equity
28%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.4x
EV / reserves
$38.57/boe
EV / flowing
$114k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.8bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 2.8x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 8.9% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $38.57/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, MOL Group scores 49/100, strongest on valuation (65/100). Sub-scores: value 65, quality 26, growth 36, risk 38 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

MOL Group holds approximately 0.28 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 95 thousand boe/d (48% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 8.1 years. Break-even: n/a (refining/retail-led; upstream a minority) — MOL is a downstream-led Central European integrated; upstream E&P is a minority of earnings.

Net asset value (public-source)

For MOL Group, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

35 /100
Medium jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Central Europe (HU/HR)45%14OECD; windfall taxes, Russia energy dependence politics.
Azerbaijan25%64Autocratic; pipeline geopolitics, Nagorno-Karabakh conflict overhang.
United Kingdom12%19Stable but EPL windfall tax raised North Sea fiscal burden.
Other10%50diversified/unspecified exposure — universe-average proxy
Kazakhstan8%64Export-route (CPC) dependence on Russia, contract disputes.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Azerbaijan ACG/Shah DenizAzerbaijanOffshore oil/gasupstream stake
UK North Sea (Catcher/Scott)United KingdomOffshore oilnon-op
Hungary/Croatia upstreamHungary/CroatiaOnshore oil/gaslegacy
KazakhstanKazakhstanOilupstream
Duna refineryHungaryDownstreamflagship
Slovnaft (Bratislava)SlovakiaDownstreamrefinery
INA (Rijeka)CroatiaDownstreamrefining
Retail (~2,400 stations)Central EuropeMarketingfuels retail

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)11396949295
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.360.340.330.310.28
Revenue ($bn)18.531.024.021.027.0
EBITDA ($bn)2.83.93.52.93.8
Net income ($bn)1.42.81.51.00.9
Free cash flow ($bn)1.00.51.20.70.8

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Peer companies — Integrated

SU · Suncor EnergyE · EniROSN · RosneftCVE · Cenovus EnergyIMO · Imperial OilLKOH · LukoilSIBN · Gazprom NeftGAZP · GazpromREP · RepsolOMV · OMVTATN · TatneftSNGS · SurgutneftegasGALP · Galp EnergiaORG · Origin Energy

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare MOL against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com