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Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL · TSX)

Gas-weighted — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Gas-weightedRegion N. AmericaCEO David Wilson (2012)Jurisdiction risk Low (8)

Overview

Calgary-based gas-weighted (~60-65% natural gas) pure-play E&P run by David Wilson's team, focused on liquids-rich Montney and Charlie Lake resource plays across NW Alberta and NE British Columbia; management's track record includes founding and selling Celtic Exploration to ExxonMobil for ~C$3.1bn in 2013.

FY2025 delivered ~41,000 boe/d, C$467m revenue, ~C$237m EBITDA and C$63m net income; the company is in a heavy reinvestment phase (capex exceeding cash flow, so free cash flow is negative) funding a multi-year growth plan toward ~60,000+ boe/d, underpinned by a deep Montney drilling inventory, owned processing infrastructure and modest net debt.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$1.3bn
Enterprise value
$1.4bn
EV / EBITDA
7.0x
P / E
28.0x
FCF yield
-3.6%
Dividend yield
0.0%
ROACE
4%
Debt / equity
16%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
EV / reserves
$5.28/boe
EV / flowing
$35k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$-0.1bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 7.0x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of -3.6% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $5.28/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Kelt Exploration Ltd. scores 49/100, strongest on growth (77/100). Sub-scores: value 30, quality 42, growth 77, risk 27 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Kelt Exploration Ltd. holds approximately 0.27 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 40 thousand boe/d (37% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 18.0 years. Break-even: ~$45 (corporate FCF breakeven) — Sustaining/operating breakeven is low (~US$35-40/bbl WTI-equivalent given liquids uplift and owned infrastructure), but the current heavy Montney growth capex program lifts the fully-loaded corporate FCF breakeven to ~US$45+ WTI-equivalent, leaving reported free cash flow negative during the build-out.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Kelt Exploration Ltd., no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

8 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Canada100%8Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Wembley/PipestoneCanadaMontney (liquids-rich gas)Core Alberta Montney; condensate-rich, primary growth engine
Pouce CoupeCanadaMontney / Charlie LakeAlberta Montney plus Charlie Lake oil; key infrastructure/processing hub
Oak/FlatrockCanadaMontney (gas/condensate)NE British Columbia Montney growth area
Charlie Lake (Progress/Pouce Coupe)CanadaCharlie Lake light oilLight-oil play adding liquids weighting and netback
Montney land baseCanadaMontney inventoryLarge multi-year, low-decline drilling inventory across AB/BC
Owned facilities & gas plantsCanadaMidstream/processingCompany-owned processing at Pouce Coupe/Wembley supports margins and control

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)2229313440
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.110.130.150.170.27
Revenue ($bn)0.20.40.30.30.4
EBITDA ($bn)0.10.20.20.20.2
Net income ($bn)0.10.10.10.00.1
Free cash flow ($bn)-0.00.00.0-0.1-0.1

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Peer companies — Gas-weighted

NVTK · NovatekEQT · EQT CorporationEXE · Expand EnergyTOU · Tourmaline OilARX · ARC ResourcesAR · Antero ResourcesRRC · Range ResourcesENEV3 · Eneva S.A.NWMD · NewMed EnergyCNX · CNX Resources CorporationCRK · Comstock Resources, Inc.PEY · Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.BKV · BKV CorporationGPOR · Gulfport Energy Corporation

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare KEL against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com