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INA-Industrija nafte (INA · Zagreb)

Integrated — HQ Croatia. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category IntegratedRegion EuropeCEO Peter Ratatics (2019)Jurisdiction risk Med (40)

Overview

INA-Industrija nafte is Croatia's national integrated oil and gas group, spanning a mature domestic upstream (Pannonian onshore and Northern Adriatic offshore, plus minority international positions in Egypt and Angola), the Rijeka refinery, and a ~500-site retail fuel network across Croatia and neighbouring markets. Ownership is dominated by MOL Group (~49%) and the Croatian state (~45%), so free float is very thin and the shares are effectively controlled; the equity is valued less on reserves than on downstream cash flow and the value of the domestic distribution footprint.

FY2025 revenue was roughly $4.3bn with EBITDA near $0.45bn and net income around $0.20bn (EUR ~3.84bn / ~0.18bn, converted ~1.13). The defining event is the ~$0.8bn Rijeka refinery upgrade completed in early 2026 - INA's largest-ever single investment - which is intended to lift complexity and product yields; alongside it, smaller green hydrogen (Rijeka) and biomethane (Sisak) projects add a modest low-carbon tilt. Upstream production of roughly 30 mboe/d is in structural decline, so the investment case rests on downstream margin capture and the payoff from the refinery reinvestment rather than reserve growth. Net debt of ~$0.7bn is moderate and the dividend yields ~3%.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$5.6bn
Enterprise value
$6.3bn
EV / EBITDA
14.6x
P / E
29.3x
FCF yield
4.5%
Dividend yield
3.3%
ROACE
7%
Debt / equity
47%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.6x
EV / reserves
$62.70/boe
EV / flowing
$273k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.2bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 14.6x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 4.5% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $62.70/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, INA-Industrija nafte scores 28/100, strongest on safety (42/100). Sub-scores: value 20, quality 29, growth 17, risk 58 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

INA-Industrija nafte holds approximately 0.1 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 23 thousand boe/d (51% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 11.9 years. Break-even: n/a (integrated (upstream + refining)) — downstream-led Croatian integrated; upstream a minority

Net asset value (public-source)

For INA-Industrija nafte, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

40 /100
Medium jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Croatia80%30Eurozone, low risk; modest reserves, environmental permitting.
Egypt12%84FX shortages, arrears to IOCs, gas payment delays.
Angola8%76High debt, FX/repatriation risk, mature declining fields.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Pannonian Basin fieldsCroatiaOil & GasMature onshore oil/gas, core domestic upstream; long-dated decline, EOR/redevelopment focus
Northern Adriatic offshore gasCroatiaGasOffshore gas JV (with Eni historically); declining output, key domestic gas source
Egypt concessionsEgyptOilInternational upstream (e.g. East Yidma/North Bahariya area); oil-weighted
Angola blocksAngolaOilNon-operated minority offshore interests; small contribution
Rijeka refineryCroatiaRefiningCore refinery (~90 kbbl/d); ~$0.8bn upgrade completed Mar-2026, INA's largest single investment
Retail network (~500 stations)CroatiaRetailFuel + convenience retail across Croatia and neighbouring countries; stable cash generator
Sisak industrial/bio siteCroatiaRefiningFormer refinery converted to industrial/bioproduct and logistics hub
Green H2 (Rijeka) + biomethane (Sisak)CroatiaLow-carbon~$0.1bn low-carbon projects, completion ~2026; modest energy-transition tilt

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)3734323223
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.160.150.140.140.10
Revenue ($bn)3.45.34.44.44.1
EBITDA ($bn)0.60.80.70.50.4
Net income ($bn)0.20.30.30.20.2
Free cash flow ($bn)0.30.10.20.00.2

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Peer companies — Integrated

SU · Suncor EnergyE · EniROSN · RosneftCVE · Cenovus EnergyIMO · Imperial OilLKOH · LukoilSIBN · Gazprom NeftGAZP · GazpromREP · RepsolOMV · OMVTATN · TatneftSNGS · SurgutneftegasGALP · Galp EnergiaORG · Origin Energy

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare INA against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com