Expand Energy (EXE · Nasdaq)

Name: Expand Energy (EXE) oil & gas valuation & reserves screen
Creator: Enerquill Advisory

Gas-weighted — HQ United States. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.

Category Gas-weightedRegion N. AmericaCEO Nick Dell'Osso (2021)Jurisdiction risk Low (23)

Overview

The largest US natural gas producer (~7 Bcf/d), created by the 2024 Chesapeake–Southwestern merger; premium acreage in Appalachia (Marcellus/Utica) and Haynesville positioned for Gulf Coast LNG demand; ~100% gas.

Strong balance sheet with capital discipline (deferred completions) and capacity to grow into LNG demand; a base dividend. Flags: pure gas-price exposure.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap

$21.9bn

Enterprise value

$24.7bn

EV / EBITDA

4.9x

P / E

12.0x

FCF yield

8.4%

Dividend yield

3.5%

ROACE

Debt / equity

27%

Net debt / EBITDA

0.9x

EV / reserves

$5.74/boe

EV / flowing

$21k/boe/d

Free cash flow

$1.8bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 4.9x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 8.4% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $5.74/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Expand Energy scores 54/100, strongest on growth (70/100). Sub-scores: value 64, quality 29, growth 70, risk 38 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Expand Energy holds approximately 4.31 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 1,197 thousand boe/d (8% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 9.9 years. Break-even: ~$2.50/MMBtu (Henry Hub gas breakeven) — Largest US gas producer after the 2024 Chesapeake+Southwestern merger; ~7 Bcf/d; low-cost Appalachia + Haynesville with LNG-feedgas exposure.

Net asset value (public-source floor)

Using Expand Energy's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($17.1bn) less net debt ($4.4bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $12.7bn — the current market capitalisation sits +72% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: $19.4bn. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines. Proved-only; low SEC gas price depresses PV-10; excludes undeveloped inventory.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

23 /100

Low jurisdiction risk

Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).

Country / region	Prod. share	Country risk	Key jurisdiction risk
United States	100%	23	Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings.

How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

Asset	Location	Type	Notes
Appalachia (Marcellus/Utica)	United States	Dry gas	legacy Southwestern + Chesapeake
Haynesville	United States	Dry gas	Louisiana/East Texas, LNG-proximate
Gulf Coast LNG supply	United States	Gas	feedgas positioning
Deferred DUC inventory	United States	Gas	flex capacity
Marcellus SW Pennsylvania	United States	Dry gas	core
Utica (Ohio)	United States	Dry gas	delineation
Haynesville (East Texas)	United States	Dry gas	core
Midstream/gathering	United States	Infrastructure	gathering

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Production (mboe/d)	435	590	580	700	1197
Proved reserves (bnboe)	1.60	1.60	1.50	4.80	4.31
Revenue ($bn)	11.5	11.7	3.5	4.8	12.1
EBITDA ($bn)	2.5	5.5	2.0	2.2	5.1
Net income ($bn)	1.2	4.9	0.8	0.8	1.8
Free cash flow ($bn)	1.0	1.6	0.7	0.5	1.8

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Peer companies — Gas-weighted

NVTK · Novatek EQT · EQT Corporation TOU · Tourmaline Oil ARX · ARC Resources AR · Antero Resources RRC · Range Resources ENEV3 · Eneva S.A.NWMD · NewMed Energy CNX · CNX Resources Corporation CRK · Comstock Resources, Inc.PEY · Peyto Exploration & Development Corp.BKV · BKV Corporation GPOR · Gulfport Energy Corporation ENOG · Energean

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

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