Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH · TSX)

Name: Athabasca Oil Corporation (ATH) oil & gas valuation & reserves screen
Creator: Enerquill Advisory

Oil sands — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.

Category Oil sandsRegion N. AmericaCEO Robert Broen (2015)Jurisdiction risk Low (8)

Overview

Pure-play Canadian producer combining flagship Leismer SAGD oil sands (Thermal Oil) with light-oil Duvernay development held through its 70%-owned Duvernay Energy subsidiary; ~98% liquids weighting and a net-cash balance sheet.

FY2025 delivered 39,375 boe/d, C$1,362M revenue, C$504M adjusted funds flow and C$181M free cash flow; 438 mmboe proved (1P) and 1,280 mmboe 2P reserves support Leismer expansion and the sanctioned Corner project, with capital returned primarily via buybacks.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap

$4.0bn

Enterprise value

$4.1bn

EV / EBITDA

11.0x

P / E

22.5x

FCF yield

3.2%

Dividend yield

0.0%

ROACE

12%

Debt / equity

10%

Net debt / EBITDA

-0.1x

EV / reserves

$9.29/boe

EV / flowing

$103k/boe/d

Free cash flow

$0.1bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 11.0x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 3.2% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $9.29/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Athabasca Oil Corporation scores 58/100, strongest on safety (83/100). Sub-scores: value 27, quality 74, growth 61, risk 17 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Athabasca Oil Corporation holds approximately 0.44 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 39 thousand boe/d (98% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 30.5 years. Break-even: ~$45 (WTI FCF breakeven) — Thermal Oil operating breakeven ~US$40/bbl WTI, sustaining ~US$45/bbl; growth at Leismer and Corner fully funded within cash flow to ~US$55/bbl WTI.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Athabasca Oil Corporation, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

8 /100

Low jurisdiction risk

Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).

Country / region	Prod. share	Country risk	Key jurisdiction risk
Canada	100%	8	Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.

How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

Asset	Location	Type	Notes
Leismer	Canada	Thermal Oil	Flagship SAGD; ~27.4 mbbl/d bitumen, expanding toward ~40 mbbl/d
Hangingstone	Canada	Thermal Oil	SAGD asset; ~8.5 mbbl/d bitumen
Corner	Canada	Thermal Oil	Sanctioned next SAGD growth project, funded within cash flow
Duvernay - Kaybob	Canada	Light Oil	Light-oil play; ~3.5 mboe/d, 76% liquids
Duvernay Energy Corp	Canada	Light Oil	70%-owned subsidiary self-funding Duvernay development
Thermal Oil reserves base	Canada	Thermal Oil	Long-life 438 mmboe 1P / 1,280 mmboe 2P, low decline

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Production (mboe/d)	31	34	34	37	39
Proved reserves (bnboe)	0.40	0.41	0.42	0.43	0.44
Revenue ($bn)	0.7	1.2	1.0	1.1	1.0
EBITDA ($bn)	0.2	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.4
Net income ($bn)	0.1	0.8	0.2	0.3	0.2
Free cash flow ($bn)	0.1	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1

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Peer companies — Oil sands

CNQ · Canadian Natural Resources SCR · Strathcona Resources Ltd.GFR · Greenfire Resources

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare ATH against 141 peers in the interactive screener