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Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ · TSX / NYSE)

Oil sands — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Oil sandsRegion N. AmericaCEO Scott Stauth (2025)Jurisdiction risk Low (10)

Overview

One of the largest oil sands operators (Horizon + AOSP mining, plus SAGD like Kirby/Primrose/Jackfish), large Western Canada natural gas & heavy oil, plus North Sea and Offshore Africa; 2025 added Chevron's Duvernay position and an expanded AOSP stake.

Fortress balance sheet with 25 consecutive years of dividend growth, durable FCF, and a low-decline base needing little sustaining capital. Flags: Canada/Alberta concentration, heavy-oil differentials/egress, and carbon policy.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$96.7bn
Enterprise value
$108bn
EV / EBITDA
8.4x
P / E
12.2x
FCF yield
6.4%
Dividend yield
3.8%
ROACE
18%
Debt / equity
37%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.9x
EV / reserves
$6.81/boe
EV / flowing
$69k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$6.2bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 8.4x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 6.4% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $6.81/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Canadian Natural Resources scores 62/100, strongest on asset quality (76/100). Sub-scores: value 53, quality 76, growth 42, risk 33 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Canadian Natural Resources holds approximately 15.91 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 1,571 thousand boe/d (81% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 27.7 years. Break-even: ~$40/bbl (WTI breakeven (funds capital + dividend)) — Long-life low-decline assets (especially oil sands mining) have very low sustaining capital and decades of reserve life, giving a low corporate breakeven.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Canadian Natural Resources, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

10 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Canada93%8Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.
United Kingdom (North Sea)5%19Stable but EPL windfall tax raised North Sea fiscal burden.
Offshore Africa2%76High debt, FX/repatriation risk, mature declining fields.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Horizon Oil SandsCanadaOil sands miningWholly-owned mining/upgrading, long-life ~zero-decline
Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP)CanadaOil sands miningStake increased via 2025 Chevron deal (Muskeg River/Jackpine)
Primrose / Kirby / JackfishCanadaOil sands (SAGD)Thermal in-situ heavy oil
Western Canada gasCanadaNatural gasLarge low-cost Montney/conventional gas
DuvernayCanadaShale (liquids-rich)Added via 2025 Chevron acquisition
Primrose/Wolf Lake heavy oilCanadaHeavy oilConventional heavy oil
North SeaUnited KingdomOffshore oilMature offshore production
Offshore AfricaCote d'Ivoire / GabonOffshore oilInternational offshore assets

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)12371288133313631571
Proved reserves (bnboe)11.6012.0013.2013.2015.91
Revenue ($bn)26.039.035.039.028.3
EBITDA ($bn)16.026.020.022.012.9
Net income ($bn)7.711.07.76.57.9
Free cash flow ($bn)7.011.07.07.06.2

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Peer companies — Oil sands

SCR · Strathcona Resources Ltd.ATH · Athabasca Oil CorporationGFR · Greenfire Resources

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare CNQ against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com