Greenfire Resources is a Canadian SAGD oil sands pure-play in the Athabasca region, operating the Hangingstone Expansion Asset and Demo Asset (~98% heavy-oil/bitumen weighting); it listed on the NYSE and TSX via a 2023 SPAC merger and pursues low-decline, long-life thermal growth.
Control shifted in late 2024 when Waterous Energy Fund — which also controls Strathcona Resources — acquired a ~43% stake and reconstituted the board; FY2025 delivered roughly 22 mboe/d and ~US$0.7bn revenue, but a levered balance sheet and WCS differential exposure keep the risk profile elevated.
Its EV/EBITDA of 5.1x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 3.3% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $2.84/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.
On a balanced screen across the universe, Greenfire Resources scores 57/100, strongest on asset quality (67/100). Sub-scores: value 45, quality 67, growth 52, risk 35 (higher = riskier).
Greenfire Resources holds approximately 0.23 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 16 thousand boe/d (100% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 39.2 years. Break-even: ~$45 (WTI FCF breakeven) — SAGD operating breakeven ~US$40/bbl WTI with sustaining capital ~US$45/bbl; free-cash generation and debt reduction highly sensitive to the WCS heavy differential and Canadian gas input costs.
For Greenfire Resources, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.
| Country / region | Prod. share | Country risk | Key jurisdiction risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 100% | 8 | Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy. |
Enerquill Advisory provides asset valuation, petroleum fiscal modelling and risk analysis for oil, gas and LNG transactions — including bespoke, deal-specific NAV and acquirer–target screens that go well beyond this public data.
Work with us →About Enerquill| Asset | Location | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hangingstone Expansion Asset | Canada | Thermal Oil | Flagship SAGD facility; ~18-20 mbbl/d bitumen |
| Hangingstone Demo Asset | Canada | Thermal Oil | Smaller SAGD facility; ~3 mbbl/d bitumen |
| Kirby | Canada | Thermal Oil | Athabasca SAGD interest / growth optionality |
| Reserves base | Canada | Thermal Oil | Long-life low-decline SAGD; ~0.40 bnbbl 1P proved |
| Senior notes | Canada | Corporate | US$300M 8.25% senior secured notes due 2029 |
| WEF / Strathcona stake | Canada | Corporate | Waterous Energy Fund controls ~43%; Strathcona-affiliated board |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mboe/d) | 8 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 16 |
| Proved reserves (bnboe) | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| Revenue ($bn) | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| EBITDA ($bn) | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Net income ($bn) | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
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✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources: