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Greenfire Resources (GFR · NYSE / TSX)

Oil sands — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Oil sandsRegion N. AmericaCEO Robert Logan (2023)Jurisdiction risk Low (8)

Overview

Greenfire Resources is a Canadian SAGD oil sands pure-play in the Athabasca region, operating the Hangingstone Expansion Asset and Demo Asset (~98% heavy-oil/bitumen weighting); it listed on the NYSE and TSX via a 2023 SPAC merger and pursues low-decline, long-life thermal growth.

Control shifted in late 2024 when Waterous Energy Fund — which also controls Strathcona Resources — acquired a ~43% stake and reconstituted the board; FY2025 delivered roughly 22 mboe/d and ~US$0.7bn revenue, but a levered balance sheet and WCS differential exposure keep the risk profile elevated.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$0.7bn
Enterprise value
$0.7bn
EV / EBITDA
5.1x
P / E
20.0x
FCF yield
3.3%
Dividend yield
0.0%
ROACE
10%
Debt / equity
45%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.3x
EV / reserves
$2.84/boe
EV / flowing
$41k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.0bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 5.1x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 3.3% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $2.84/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Greenfire Resources scores 57/100, strongest on asset quality (67/100). Sub-scores: value 45, quality 67, growth 52, risk 35 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Greenfire Resources holds approximately 0.23 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 16 thousand boe/d (100% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 39.2 years. Break-even: ~$45 (WTI FCF breakeven) — SAGD operating breakeven ~US$40/bbl WTI with sustaining capital ~US$45/bbl; free-cash generation and debt reduction highly sensitive to the WCS heavy differential and Canadian gas input costs.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Greenfire Resources, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

8 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Canada100%8Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Hangingstone Expansion AssetCanadaThermal OilFlagship SAGD facility; ~18-20 mbbl/d bitumen
Hangingstone Demo AssetCanadaThermal OilSmaller SAGD facility; ~3 mbbl/d bitumen
KirbyCanadaThermal OilAthabasca SAGD interest / growth optionality
Reserves baseCanadaThermal OilLong-life low-decline SAGD; ~0.40 bnbbl 1P proved
Senior notesCanadaCorporateUS$300M 8.25% senior secured notes due 2029
WEF / Strathcona stakeCanadaCorporateWaterous Energy Fund controls ~43%; Strathcona-affiliated board

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)814192016
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.300.350.380.390.23
Revenue ($bn)0.30.60.80.80.4
EBITDA ($bn)0.10.20.30.30.1
Net income ($bn)0.00.10.10.10.0
Free cash flow ($bn)0.00.10.10.10.0

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Peer companies — Oil sands

CNQ · Canadian Natural ResourcesSCR · Strathcona Resources Ltd.ATH · Athabasca Oil Corporation

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare GFR against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com