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Aradel Holdings (ARADEL · NGX)

Integrated — HQ Nigeria. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category IntegratedRegion AfricaCEO Adegbite Falade (2022)Jurisdiction risk High (89)

Overview

Aradel Holdings is Nigeria's leading indigenous integrated energy company, spanning upstream oil and gas (OML 40, the legacy Ogbele field and the Omerelu gas development), an ~11,000 bpd modular refinery at Ogbele and gas processing feeding the domestic market and NLNG. FY2025 revenue rose ~20% to ~$0.46bn (699bn NGN) with production around 30 mboe/d, roughly 80% oil-weighted.

Reported FY2025 net income jumped ~190% to ~$0.5bn (754bn NGN), but that figure is inflated by large acquisition-related and fair-value gains tied to the 2024 corporate transaction that expanded its reserves base and balance sheet; underlying operating income actually eased year-on-year. The stock re-rated ~185% over the year on the NGX. The investment case rests on low-cost onshore barrels, integration into refining and gas, and a net-cash position, against 100% Niger Delta concentration, security/theft losses and Nigerian FX and regulatory risk.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$5.5bn
Enterprise value
$7.2bn
EV / EBITDA
13.3x
P / E
11.1x
FCF yield
0.7%
Dividend yield
1.6%
ROACE
14%
Debt / equity
58%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.7x
EV / reserves
$59.67/boe
EV / flowing
$315k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.0bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 13.3x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 0.7% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $59.67/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Aradel Holdings scores 43/100, strongest on asset quality (71/100). Sub-scores: value 25, quality 71, growth 68, risk 76 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Aradel Holdings holds approximately 0.12 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 23 thousand boe/d (42% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 14.5 years. Break-even: ~$40 (Brent breakeven) — Low-cost onshore Niger Delta barrels (OML 40 and Ogbele) with modest opex support a group Brent breakeven around $40/bbl; realised cash margins depend heavily on evacuation reliability (theft/losses on third-party pipelines) and naira/FX dynamics rather than price alone.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Aradel Holdings, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

89 /100
High jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Nigeria100%89Theft/sabotage, subsidy reform, PIA transition, security.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
AssetCountryTypenote
OML 40NigeriaOil E&PCore producing licence in the western Niger Delta; primary growth and volume driver
Ogbele FieldNigeriaOil & GasLegacy marginal field; integrated oil, gas plant and refinery hub
OmereluNigeriaGas E&PGas-focused development supporting domestic gas ambitions
Ogbele Modular RefineryNigeriaRefining~11,000 bpd modular refinery producing diesel, naphtha and other products
Ogbele Gas PlantNigeriaGas ProcessingProcesses associated/non-associated gas for domestic sales and NLNG feed
Gbetiokun (OML 40)NigeriaOilProducing development within the OML 40 licence area
Acquired reserve interestsNigeriaOil & Gas2024 transaction expanding reserves and consolidated asset base

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)1416222823
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.280.300.320.340.12
Revenue ($bn)0.00.00.10.40.5
EBITDA ($bn)0.00.00.10.20.5
Net income ($bn)0.00.00.00.20.5
Free cash flow ($bn)0.00.00.00.10.0

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Peer companies — Integrated

SU · Suncor EnergyE · EniROSN · RosneftCVE · Cenovus EnergyIMO · Imperial OilLKOH · LukoilSIBN · Gazprom NeftGAZP · GazpromREP · RepsolOMV · OMVTATN · TatneftSNGS · SurgutneftegasGALP · Galp EnergiaORG · Origin Energy

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare ARADEL against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com