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Surge Energy (SGY · TSX)

Mid-cap E&P — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Mid-cap E&PRegion N. AmericaCEO Paul Colborne (2010)Jurisdiction risk Low (8)

Overview

Surge Energy is a pure-play Western Canadian conventional oil producer (~25 mboe/d, ~85% liquids) built around low-decline waterflood and EOR assets in the Sparky and SE Saskatchewan fairways; the low corporate decline holds maintenance capital down and funds a high monthly dividend yielding roughly 8%.

The investment case hinges on oil price and payout sustainability: strong netbacks in a mid-cycle WTI environment cover the dividend and modest debt reduction, but the above-average payout, single-basin concentration, and full exposure to WTI/heavy differentials make cash flow and the dividend sensitive to price swings and Canadian egress/carbon-cost dynamics.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$0.8bn
Enterprise value
$0.9bn
EV / EBITDA
4.5x
P / E
25.9x
FCF yield
11.6%
Dividend yield
5.3%
ROACE
7%
Debt / equity
34%
Net debt / EBITDA
0.8x
EV / reserves
$13.58/boe
EV / flowing
$39k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.1bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 4.5x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 11.6% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $13.58/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Surge Energy scores 53/100, strongest on safety (62/100). Sub-scores: value 56, quality 49, growth 36, risk 38 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Surge Energy holds approximately 0.07 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 24 thousand boe/d (88% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 7.8 years. Break-even: ~$50 (WTI FCF breakeven) — Low-decline conventional waterflood base keeps sustaining capital modest; the free-cash-flow breakeven covering maintenance capex plus the monthly dividend sits near WTI ~US$50/bbl.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Surge Energy, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

8 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Canada100%8Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
SparkyCanadaConventional medium oilCore Alberta waterflood/EOR fairway; largest producing area and primary development focus
SE SaskatchewanCanadaConventional light/medium oilLow-decline light/medium oil waterflood core area
ShaunavonCanadaConventional medium oilSW Saskatchewan conventional oil pool
ValhallaCanadaConventional light oilAlberta Doig/Montney light-oil play
Greater SawnCanadaConventional light oilNorth-central Alberta Nisku/Slave Point light oil
Betty Lake / ProvostCanadaEOR (polymer/waterflood)Enhanced-oil-recovery pilots and polymer/waterflood upside

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)2224242524
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.090.100.100.100.07
Revenue ($bn)0.30.50.50.50.4
EBITDA ($bn)0.20.30.20.20.2
Net income ($bn)0.10.20.10.10.0
Free cash flow ($bn)0.10.10.10.10.1

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Peer companies — Mid-cap E&P

FANG · Diamondback EnergyPR · Permian ResourcesCHRD · Chord Energy CorporationMTDR · Matador Resources CompanyMGY · Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMUR · Murphy Oil CorporationTVE · Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.CRC · California Resources CorporationNVPT · Navitas PetroleumCRGY · Crescent EnergyBTE · Baytex Energy Corp.POU · Paramount Resources Ltd.TALO · Talos Energy Inc.ENRG · Energi Mega Persada

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare SGY against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com