Petrobras is the cheapest company in the sample on virtually every metric — ~4x EV/EBITDA, ~5–6x earnings, ~$15/boe of reserves and a ~13–14% free-cash-flow yield — paired with genuinely high-quality assets. Production of ~3.0 million boe/d (+11% YoY) is ~82% pre-salt, centred on the Santos Basin (Búzios set a ~1.1 million bbl/d record in 2025). Reserves of 12.1 billion boe are second only to ExxonMobil here; 2025 reserve replacement of 175% was the best in about a decade.
The discount is a governance and jurisdiction discount, not an asset-quality one. The Brazilian government holds 50.26% of voting shares plus a golden share — control over strategy, the large variable dividend, and domestic fuel pricing (periodically held below import parity). CEO turnover is frequent and politically driven. Exposure is effectively single-country. It is the textbook case for reading a valuation screen alongside a risk lens.
Its EV/EBITDA of 4.0x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 13.6% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $14.53/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.
On a balanced screen across the universe, Petrobras scores 55/100, strongest on valuation (71/100). Sub-scores: value 71, quality 64, growth 37, risk 73 (higher = riskier).
Petrobras holds approximately 12.1 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 2,990 thousand boe/d (84% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 11.1 years. Break-even: ~$28/bbl (Portfolio project break-even (Brent)) — Pre-salt lifting cost ~$6/bbl — among the world's lowest (total-company ~$10–11/bbl). Petrobras-stated portfolio project break-even ~$28/bbl Brent; Búzios ~$28–35/bbl.
Using Petrobras's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($123bn) less net debt ($60.6bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $62.6bn — the current market capitalisation sits +84% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: —. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines. Excludes large refining/downstream & midstream value. Carries a very large ~$28.5bn decommissioning liability — a major NAV drag.
| Country / region | Prod. share | Country risk | Key jurisdiction risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 100% | 61 | Complex tax/local-content rules; Petrobras policy swings, strong pre-salt. |
Enerquill Advisory provides asset valuation, petroleum fiscal modelling and risk analysis for oil, gas and LNG transactions — including bespoke, deal-specific NAV and acquirer–target screens that go well beyond this public data.
Work with us →About Enerquill| Asset | Location | Type | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Búzios | Brazil — Santos (pre-salt) | Deepwater oil | World's largest deepwater field; record ~1.1 mmbbl/d (2025); ramping to 6 FPSOs |
| Tupi (Lula) | Brazil — Santos (pre-salt) | Deepwater oil | Foundational pre-salt giant across many FPSOs; top reserve contributor |
| Mero (Libra) | Brazil — Santos (pre-salt) | Deepwater oil | Consortium; Mero-4 FPSO (~180 kbd) started 2025 |
| Itapu | Brazil — Santos (pre-salt) | Deepwater oil | 100% PBR; FPSO P-71 ~150 kbd |
| Sépia | Brazil — Santos (pre-salt) | Deepwater oil | FPSO Carioca + Sépia-2; drove 2024 reserve additions |
| Atapu | Brazil — Santos (pre-salt) | Deepwater oil | New FPSO capacity; reserve growth driver |
| SEAP — Sergipe-Alagoas | Brazil — SEAL basin | Deepwater development | New frontier outside Santos/Campos; first oil ~2029 |
| Equatorial Margin | Brazil — Foz do Amazonas | Exploration | High-impact frontier; Morpho well spudded 2025 |
| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production (mboe/d) | 2772 | 2684 | 2780 | 2700 | 2990 |
| Proved reserves (bnboe) | 9.88 | 10.50 | 10.90 | 11.40 | 12.10 |
| Revenue ($bn) | 84.0 | 124.5 | 102.4 | 91.4 | 89.2 |
| EBITDA ($bn) | 49.3 | 70.3 | 51.3 | 45.9 | 43.8 |
| Net income ($bn) | 19.9 | 36.6 | 24.9 | 7.5 | 19.6 |
| Free cash flow ($bn) | 36.2 | 45.0 | 34.7 | 24.2 | 15.7 |
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✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources: