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Orlen (PKN · Warsaw)

NOC / state — HQ Poland. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category NOC / stateRegion EuropeCEO Ireneusz Fafara (2024)Jurisdiction risk Low (17)

Overview

Central Europe's largest refiner/retailer (refineries in Poland - Plock, Czechia, Lithuania - Mazeikiai; ~3,500 stations across the region); a large regulated gas business post-PGNiG merger including Norwegian NCS gas upstream feeding Baltic Pipe to Poland; plus power (gas + offshore wind) and petrochemicals.

Polish state-controlled, downstream/gas-utility heavy, dividend-paying with a large capex program. Flags: refining-dominated (not upstream-focused), state/political influence, regulated gas & power exposure.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$44.0bn
Enterprise value
$43.5bn
EV / EBITDA
3.8x
P / E
14.4x
FCF yield
9.1%
Dividend yield
5.8%
ROACE
6%
Debt / equity
22%
Net debt / EBITDA
-0.1x
EV / reserves
$33.21/boe
EV / flowing
$202k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$4.0bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 3.8x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 9.1% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $33.21/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Orlen scores 56/100, strongest on growth (92/100). Sub-scores: value 57, quality 23, growth 92, risk 21 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Orlen holds approximately 1.31 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 215 thousand boe/d (0% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 16.7 years. Break-even: n/a (refining/retail-led; upstream a minority) — Orlen is a downstream-led Central European integrated (refining, petrochemicals, retail, regulated gas & power); upstream E&P is a minority of earnings, so an upstream breakeven is not the key metric.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Orlen, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

17 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Poland55%17OECD; coal-to-gas transition, limited upstream, Russia border.
Czechia15%9Stable EU/OECD; negligible upstream, downstream/import focus.
Lithuania10%13OECD; minimal upstream, Baltic geopolitical exposure.
Norway (upstream)10%3Stable, predictable; high but transparent 78% tax.
Other10%50diversified/unspecified exposure — universe-average proxy
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Norwegian upstream (PGNiG Upstream Norway)NorwayOffshore gasNCS gas feeding Baltic Pipe to Poland - the core upstream
Polish upstream (Orlen/PGNiG)PolandOnshore gas/oilDomestic gas & oil E&P
Plock refinery/petrochemPolandDownstreamFlagship refinery + petrochemical complex
Lithuania & Czech refineriesLithuania/CzechiaDownstreamMazeikiai + Litvinov/Kralupy regional refining
Retail (~3,500 stations)Central EuropeMarketingPoland, Czechia, Germany, Slovakia, Lithuania
Gas (Baltic Pipe / storage / LNG)PolandGas midstreamRegulated gas transmission, energy security
Energy / PowerPolandPowerGas-fired + offshore wind (Baltic Power)
Canada upstreamCanadaGasLegacy PGNiG Canadian gas assets

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)45190196192215
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.151.201.151.121.31
Revenue ($bn)33.070.093.078.072.9
EBITDA ($bn)3.512.011.58.511.4
Net income ($bn)2.88.35.02.03.0
Free cash flow ($bn)1.06.02.0-1.04.0

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Peer companies — NOC / state

2222 · Saudi Aramco0857.HK · PetroChina0883.HK · CNOOCPBR · PetrobrasEQNR · Equinor0386.HK · SinopecONGC · ONGCEC · EcopetrolPTT · PTT PCLYPF · YPFOQEP · OQ Exploration & ProductionOIL · Oil India

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare PKN against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com