Northern Oil & Gas (NOG · NYSE)

Name: Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) oil & gas valuation & reserves screen
Creator: Enerquill Advisory

Mid-cap E&P — HQ United States. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.

Category Mid-cap E&PRegion N. AmericaCEO Nick O'Grady (2020)Jurisdiction risk Low (23)

Overview

Largest US non-operated E&P: buys minority working interests alongside top operators in the Williston, Permian and Appalachia rather than drilling itself, giving diversified exposure with a lean cost structure. FY2025 production reached a record 135,045 Boe/d (56% oil).

GAAP net income fell to $38.8m on mark-to-market derivative losses, but adjusted net income was $453m and full-year free cash flow turned positive. Continued M&A (e.g. the $465m Utica JV with Infinity, Feb 2026) drives the growth-plus-return strategy.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap

$2.3bn

Enterprise value

$4.7bn

EV / EBITDA

2.9x

P / E

58.7x

FCF yield

11.0%

Dividend yield

8.5%

ROACE

Debt / equity

113%

Net debt / EBITDA

1.5x

EV / reserves

$12.16/boe

EV / flowing

$35k/boe/d

Free cash flow

$0.2bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 2.9x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 11.0% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $12.16/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Northern Oil & Gas scores 54/100, strongest on growth (90/100). Sub-scores: value 61, quality 48, growth 90, risk 64 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Northern Oil & Gas holds approximately 0.38 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 135 thousand boe/d (56% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 7.8 years. Break-even: ~$40 (WTI FCF breakeven) — Low-cost non-op interests plus hedging support free cash flow and the ~8.5% dividend through mid-cycle prices.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Northern Oil & Gas, no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

23 /100

Low jurisdiction risk

Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).

Country / region	Prod. share	Country risk	Key jurisdiction risk
United States	100%	23	Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings.

How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

Asset	Location	Type	Notes
Williston (Bakken/Three Forks)	United States	Non-op oil	Core legacy position
Permian - Delaware	United States	Non-op oil	Non-op interests alongside leading operators
Permian - Midland	United States	Non-op oil	High-return non-op oil
Appalachia - Marcellus	United States	Non-op gas	Gas-weighted position (2022)
Appalachia - Utica	United States	Non-op gas/liquids	Infinity JV, Feb 2026
Ground game / DrillCo	United States	Non-op multi-basin	Continuous bolt-on acquisitions

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025
Production (mboe/d)	50	76	92	124	135
Proved reserves (bnboe)	0.19	0.23	0.29	0.35	0.38
Revenue ($bn)	0.5	1.6	2.2	2.2	2.5
EBITDA ($bn)	0.4	1.1	1.4	1.6	1.6
Net income ($bn)	-0.0	0.7	0.9	0.5	0.0
Free cash flow ($bn)	-0.2	-0.4	-0.7	-0.3	0.2

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Peer companies — Mid-cap E&P

FANG · Diamondback Energy PR · Permian Resources CHRD · Chord Energy Corporation MTDR · Matador Resources Company MGY · Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation MUR · Murphy Oil Corporation TVE · Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.CRC · California Resources Corporation NVPT · Navitas Petroleum CRGY · Crescent Energy BTE · Baytex Energy Corp.POU · Paramount Resources Ltd.TALO · Talos Energy Inc.ENRG · Energi Mega Persada

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare NOG against 141 peers in the interactive screener