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Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR · NYSE)

Mid-cap E&P — HQ United States. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Mid-cap E&PRegion N. AmericaCEO Tom L. Ward (2018)Jurisdiction risk Low (23)

Overview

Tom Ward-led (Chesapeake/SandRidge co-founder) upstream MLP concentrated in the Anadarko/Mid-Continent, pursuing a conventional, low-decline, cash-return model rather than growth. Transformative 2025 M&A — Sabinal Energy (western Anadarko), IKAV (San Juan gas), and Flatrock (Ardmore) — lifted total proved reserves 109% to 705 MMboe and pushed Q4 2025 production to ~154 Mboe/d (~17% oil, 68% gas, 15% NGL).

FY2025: revenue ~$1.18B, adjusted EBITDA ~$593M, net income ~$143M, operating cash flow $507M against $252M capex. Distributed $1.94/unit (~15% yield), the highest among E&P peers. Balance sheet carries ~$705M drawn on a $1.0B RBL (net debt ~$662M, ~1.1x EBITDA) with $43M cash; PV-10 of proved reserves ~$3.1B. Flags: variable distribution is prices-dependent, gas-heavy reserve base, and acquisition-driven leverage/integration exposure.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$2.2bn
Enterprise value
$3.4bn
EV / EBITDA
5.6x
P / E
15.7x
FCF yield
11.6%
Dividend yield
14.7%
ROACE
9%
Debt / equity
62%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.9x
EV / reserves
$4.75/boe
EV / flowing
$29k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.3bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 5.6x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 11.6% is higher than the 6.5% median, and at $4.75/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Mach Natural Resources LP scores 58/100, strongest on growth (82/100). Sub-scores: value 74, quality 48, growth 82, risk 62 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Mach Natural Resources LP holds approximately 0.7 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 115 thousand boe/d (31% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 16.8 years. Break-even: ~$45 (WTI FCF breakeven) — Low-decline conventional Mid-Continent base plus disciplined ~47% reinvestment rate keeps corporate free-cash-flow breakeven in the mid-$40s WTI; below that the variable distribution absorbs the shortfall rather than the balance sheet.

Net asset value (public-source floor)

Using Mach Natural Resources LP's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($3.1bn) less net debt ($1.1bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $2.0bn — the current market capitalisation sits +11% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: $3.1bn. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

23 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
United States100%23Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
Anadarko Basin coreUnited StatesOil & GasLegacy low-decline conventional acreage across OK, TX Panhandle, KS
Sabinal Energy assetsUnited StatesOil & Gas2025 acquisition, western Anadarko oil-weighted
IKAV / San Juan BasinUnited StatesGas2025 acquisition, mature low-decline gas
Flatrock / Ardmore BasinUnited StatesOil & Gas2025 acquisition, southern Oklahoma
Marietta BasinUnited StatesOilConventional oil in southern OK
Mississippian / Woodford stacked payUnited StatesGasMulti-zone Mid-Continent gas
Owned gathering & SWD infrastructureUnited StatesInfrastructureMidstream/water assets reduce operating cost
Oswego / Meramec conventional oilUnited StatesOilShallow conventional oil targets

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)72848881115
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.140.180.200.340.70
Revenue ($bn)0.40.90.81.01.2
EBITDA ($bn)0.30.60.50.60.6
Net income ($bn)0.10.40.10.20.1
Free cash flow ($bn)0.10.30.20.30.3

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Peer companies — Mid-cap E&P

FANG · Diamondback EnergyPR · Permian ResourcesCHRD · Chord Energy CorporationMTDR · Matador Resources CompanyMGY · Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMUR · Murphy Oil CorporationTVE · Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.CRC · California Resources CorporationNVPT · Navitas PetroleumCRGY · Crescent EnergyBTE · Baytex Energy Corp.POU · Paramount Resources Ltd.TALO · Talos Energy Inc.ENRG · Energi Mega Persada

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare MNR against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com