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HighPeak Energy (HPK · Nasdaq)

Mid-cap E&P — HQ United States. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Mid-cap E&PRegion N. AmericaCEO Jack Hightower (2019)Jurisdiction risk Low (23)

Overview

HighPeak is a concentrated, oil-weighted (~85%) Permian pure-play developing Wolfcamp/Spraberry stacked pay across contiguous Howard and Borden County acreage (Flat Top and Signal Peak). Its single-asset focus delivers strong well economics but leaves it fully exposed to one play and WTI prices.

After years of debt-funded growth (2022-23 capex >$1bn/yr), management pivoted to capital discipline and deleveraging: FY2025 revenue fell ~23% to $0.86bn on lower prices and moderated activity, EBITDA ~$0.52bn, and net income compressed to ~$19m. High leverage (~$1.2bn gross debt) and founder control remain the key risk/optionality for any M&A or take-private.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$1.0bn
Enterprise value
$2.0bn
EV / EBITDA
3.5x
P / E
51.1x
FCF yield
-0.4%
Dividend yield
1.6%
ROACE
5%
Debt / equity
74%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.8x
EV / reserves
$11.49/boe
EV / flowing
$41k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.0bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 3.5x is below the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of -0.4% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $11.49/boe of proved reserves it is cheaper than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, HighPeak Energy scores 48/100, strongest on growth (85/100). Sub-scores: value 44, quality 54, growth 85, risk 67 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

HighPeak Energy holds approximately 0.17 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 48 thousand boe/d (84% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 9.9 years. Break-even: ~$45 (WTI FCF breakeven) — Reduced FY2025 capex (~$0.52bn) kept FCF roughly neutral; sub-$45 WTI pressures free cash flow and debt paydown capacity.

Net asset value (public-source floor)

Using HighPeak Energy's SEC-disclosed after-tax standardized measure of proved reserves ($1.9bn) less net debt ($1.0bn) gives an equity-NAV floor of about $0.9bn — the current market capitalisation sits +14% versus that floor. Disclosed pre-tax PV-10: $2.1bn. This is a floor: proved reserves only, excluding undeveloped inventory, downstream and other business lines.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

23 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
United States100%23Stable, deep; federal-lands leasing and permitting policy swings.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
AssetCountryTypenote
Flat TopUnited StatesOil — PermianCore Howard County development area; Wolfcamp/Lower Spraberry
Signal PeakUnited StatesOil — PermianBorden County secondary core area
Wolfcamp A/BUnited StatesHorizontal oilPrimary development target zones
Lower SpraberryUnited StatesHorizontal oilStacked-pay co-development
Owned infrastructureUnited StatesMidstream/SWDCompany-owned water, gathering and disposal assets

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)1126445048
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.150.270.480.470.17
Revenue ($bn)0.20.81.11.10.9
EBITDA ($bn)0.10.50.70.60.6
Net income ($bn)0.10.20.20.10.0
Free cash flow ($bn)-0.1-0.5-0.20.10.0

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Peer companies — Mid-cap E&P

FANG · Diamondback EnergyPR · Permian ResourcesCHRD · Chord Energy CorporationMTDR · Matador Resources CompanyMGY · Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMUR · Murphy Oil CorporationTVE · Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.CRC · California Resources CorporationNVPT · Navitas PetroleumCRGY · Crescent EnergyBTE · Baytex Energy Corp.POU · Paramount Resources Ltd.TALO · Talos Energy Inc.ENRG · Energi Mega Persada

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare HPK against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com