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Cardinal Energy Ltd. (CJ · TSX)

Mid-cap E&P — HQ Canada. Oil & gas valuation, proved reserves, production, break-even, net-asset-value and jurisdiction-risk screen.
Category Mid-cap E&PRegion N. AmericaCEO M. Scott Ratushny (2010)Jurisdiction risk Low (8)

Overview

Pure-play Canadian conventional light/medium oil producer with a low-decline base (~22 mboe/d, ~90%+ oil) that funds a consistent monthly dividend (~6% yield); low corporate decline holds sustaining capital down and puts the WTI free-cash breakeven near ~US$45.

Growth pivot is the Reford SAGD thermal project in Alberta, which reached first oil ahead of schedule and underpins higher 2026 capital and production; thermal execution/ramp and oil-price sensitivity are the key swing factors given the single-basin, oil-weighted portfolio.

Valuation snapshot (FY2025)

Market cap
$1.5bn
Enterprise value
$1.7bn
EV / EBITDA
11.3x
P / E
99.3x
FCF yield
6.0%
Dividend yield
6.2%
ROACE
3%
Debt / equity
28%
Net debt / EBITDA
1.4x
EV / reserves
$15.89/boe
EV / flowing
$78k/boe/d
Free cash flow
$0.1bn

Its EV/EBITDA of 11.3x is above the 5.9x median across the 142-company universe, the free-cash-flow yield of 6.0% is lower than the 6.5% median, and at $15.89/boe of proved reserves it is richer than the $13.51/boe median.

On a balanced screen across the universe, Cardinal Energy Ltd. scores 45/100, strongest on safety (64/100). Sub-scores: value 35, quality 42, growth 40, risk 36 (higher = riskier).

Reserves & production

Cardinal Energy Ltd. holds approximately 0.11 billion boe of proved (1P) reserves with FY2025 production of about 22 thousand boe/d (86% liquids), a reserve life of roughly 13.4 years. Break-even: ~$45 (WTI FCF breakeven) — Low-decline conventional base keeps maintenance capital modest; free-cash-flow breakeven (covering sustaining capex and the ~C$0.72/sh monthly dividend) sits near WTI ~US$45/bbl.

Net asset value (public-source)

For Cardinal Energy Ltd., no SEC standardized measure is disclosed (non-US filer or listed NOC), so a public-source proved-NAV floor is not computable from US filings. See the interactive screener's NAV tab for peers where an SEC figure exists.

Jurisdiction risk · production-weighted country risk

8 /100
Low jurisdiction risk
Production-weighted average of the country scores below (0 = safest, 100 = riskiest).
Country / regionProd. shareCountry riskKey jurisdiction risk
Canada100%8Stable; pipeline egress constraints, oil-sands emissions policy.
How this is scored. Each country's risk (0–100) is anchored to two named public indices — the OECD Country Risk Classification (0–7 official export-credit country risk) and the World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (Political Stability & Absence of Violence percentile) — blended 55/45 and rescaled to 0–100. A company's jurisdiction risk is the production-weighted average across the countries where it operates. This is a pure country measure, kept separate from company & financial risk (leverage, governance). Source: OECD Country Risk Classification (CRC) as of 24 July 2025, sourced via the German Federal Export Credit Guarantees (exportkreditgarantien.de) which applies the OECD consensus country risk category directly (values 0-7; 0 = lowest risk). High-income OECD members are not individually rated by the OECD and are set to crc=0 per the model spec (US, UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, Japan, NZ, and most of Europe incl. OECD members Israel, Poland, Hungary, Czechia, Lithuania, Ireland). 'ps' = World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) 'Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism' percentile rank, latest available (2023 vintage), 0-100 with higher = more stable; ps values are best sourced estimates rounded to the WGI percentile scale. Yemen not on OECD list ('./.') so crc estimated at 7. Iraq-Kurdistan and Falklands are non-standard model rows using judgment, not official OECD entries..

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Key assets & projects

AssetLocationTypeNotes
RefordCanadaThermal oil (SAGD)New Alberta SAGD project; first oil ahead of schedule, primary growth driver into 2026
MidaleCanadaConventional light oilSE Saskatchewan low-decline waterflood core area
BantryCanadaConventional medium oilSE Alberta core light/medium oil
House MountainCanadaConventional light oilAlberta light oil pool, low decline
MitsueCanadaConventional light oilAlberta light oil waterflood
Grand ForksCanadaConventional light oilCentral Alberta light oil
WainwrightCanadaConventional medium/heavy oilAlberta medium/heavy oil assets

Five-year trend (FY2021–FY2025)

Metric20212022202320242025
Production (mboe/d)2121222222
Proved reserves (bnboe)0.080.090.090.100.11
Revenue ($bn)0.30.40.30.40.4
EBITDA ($bn)0.30.30.20.20.1
Net income ($bn)0.20.20.10.10.0
Free cash flow ($bn)0.10.20.10.10.1

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Peer companies — Mid-cap E&P

FANG · Diamondback EnergyPR · Permian ResourcesCHRD · Chord Energy CorporationMTDR · Matador Resources CompanyMGY · Magnolia Oil & Gas CorporationMUR · Murphy Oil CorporationTVE · Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.CRC · California Resources CorporationNVPT · Navitas PetroleumCRGY · Crescent EnergyBTE · Baytex Energy Corp.POU · Paramount Resources Ltd.TALO · Talos Energy Inc.ENRG · Energi Mega Persada

Sources

✓ FY2025 figures verified against primary sources:

↗ Compare CJ against 141 peers in the interactive screener

Disclaimer. Screening research only — a starting point, not investment or transactional advice. Figures are drawn from public sources (~mid-2026), may contain errors, and require independent due diligence before any decision.
Enerquill Advisory. Data compiled from company FY2025 filings and results releases; market data ~mid-2026. Larger names are verified against primary sources (shown on each page); smaller names are best-estimates pending verification. © Enerquill Advisory. enerquilladvisory.com